What happened to the election?
November 21, 2016
Whether thrilled or disappointed with the election results, Donald J. Trump will be the 45th President of the United States. Much controversy exists because Hillary Clinton received about 100,000 more votes than Donald Trump. And although this is not the first time the popular vote winner lost the election, what made this election especially stunning was that Trump won the Electoral College by a significant margin — 290-232 (according to the New York Times).
In 2000, George W. Bush also lost the popular vote but won the election. However, he only received 271 electoral votes, slightly over the necessary amount needed to win the Presidency. Trump’s win was particularly surprising because nearly all of the polls predicted his loss.
Some of the swing states Trump won were Utah, Arizona, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Georgia. He also won perhaps the most significant state, Florida, the swing state with the most electoral votes. Floridians have voted for the overall winning candidate nine of the past ten elections, with the one exception being in 1992. A key reason Trump won was his success in the area known as the Rust Belt.
The Rust Belt contains the swing states of Pennsylvania, Ohio, Illinois, and Michigan. Trump won all of these Rust Belt states, with the exception of Illinois. It is almost impossible for a Republican to win Illinois as it contains the very large and Democratic city of Chicago. The Rust Belt states that Trump won accounted for 54 of his electoral votes.
In the mid-20th century the Rust Belt was known as the Manufacturing Belt, Factory Belt or Steel Belt. That area of the country had many manufacturing jobs. Because of free trade agreements such as NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement), there has been a significant decrease in the amount of industry in the region. A lot of factories have closed and thus the Steel Belt rusted into the Rust Belt.
A large part of Trump’s message has been about bringing back industry. He has been consistently vocal about negotiating better trade deals. He has spoken strongly against NAFTA and has indicated that it was signed by former president Bill Clinton. Trump has stated that he would institute tax cuts and simplify the tax code in order to bring back industry.
If Hillary Clinton had won Pennsylvania and Michigan, as the polls predicted, she would have won the race and become our 45th President. But with the overwhelming support of the Rust Belt, it is Trump who will spend the next four years in the Oval Office.
Data courtesy of The New York Times